Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 48.03%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 25.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
0.65) 
-0.09) 
