SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 78.22%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 8.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.5%) and 3-1 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.47%), while for a Borussia Monchengladbach win it was 1-2 (2.64%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Borussia Monchengladbach |
78.22% ( -0.03) | 12.86% ( 0.02) | 8.91% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 58.9% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.79% ( -0.08) | 24.2% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 56.13% ( -0.1) | 43.87% ( 0.11) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.05% ( -0.02) | 4.94% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 80.18% ( -0.06) | 19.81% ( 0.06) |
| Borussia Monchengladbach Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.96% ( -0.04) | 38.04% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.19% ( -0.04) | 74.8% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Borussia Monchengladbach |
| 3-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 8.24% ( -0)2-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 6.41% ( -0)4-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 3.85% ( -0)5-1 @ 3.72% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.93% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 0.96% ( -0)6-2 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.48% Total : 78.22% | 1-1 @ 5.47% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.97% 0-0 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0)Other @ 0.26% Total : 12.86% | 1-2 @ 2.64% ( 0) 0-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.28% ( -0)Other @ 3.17% Total : 8.91% |
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