While Freiburg have had a commendable sequence of results on home soil, the Breisgau Brazilians have let in at least two goals in each of the previous three Bundesliga contests in front of their supporters.
With Heidenheim scoring two or more in three of their past five away matches, another goal-fest could ensue on Saturday, even if the hosts are backed to record a marginal triumph.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 51.12%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 25.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
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