SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 47.47%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 28.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Heidenheim |
47.47% ( 0.18) | 23.69% ( -0.05) | 28.84% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 59.4% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.76% ( 0.13) | 42.24% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.36% ( 0.13) | 64.64% ( -0.13) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82% ( 0.12) | 17.99% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.14% ( 0.21) | 48.85% ( -0.21) |
| Heidenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.43% ( -0.02) | 27.57% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.91% ( -0.03) | 63.09% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Heidenheim |
| 2-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.51% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.67% Total : 47.47% | 1-1 @ 10.96% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.96% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.69% | 1-2 @ 7.06% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.39% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.03% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.6% 0-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.89% Total : 28.84% |
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