This is such a tricky match to call considering Atletico's strength on home soil; Leverkusen will bring a seriously good winning run into this match, but Atletico's recent form has also been brilliant, and we are finding it incredibly difficult to separate the two teams.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 48.86%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 26.09% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
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