Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 57.24%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 22.62% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.98%) and 3-1 (6.94%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (5.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
