SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 50.64%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.26%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Willem II win was 2-1 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
25.85% ( 0.14) | 23.51% ( 0.04) | 50.64% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 57.48% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.36% ( -0.06) | 43.64% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.97% ( -0.06) | 66.03% ( 0.07) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.52% ( 0.08) | 30.48% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.3% ( 0.09) | 66.7% ( -0.09) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.68% ( -0.09) | 17.31% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.32% ( -0.16) | 47.68% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)Other @ 3% Total : 25.85% | 1-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 9.64% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.26% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.12% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 5.64% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.74% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.35% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.08% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.88% Total : 50.64% |
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