SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 63.19%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Armenia had a probability of 15.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.33%) and 1-2 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.99%), while for an Armenia win it was 1-0 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Croatia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Armenia | Draw | Croatia |
15.81% ( 0.27) | 21% ( 0.17) | 63.19% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 50.06% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.14% ( -0.23) | 45.86% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.83% ( -0.22) | 68.17% ( 0.22) |
| Armenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.12% ( 0.21) | 41.87% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.67% ( 0.18) | 78.32% ( -0.19) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.13% ( -0.21) | 13.87% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.73% ( -0.41) | 41.27% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Armenia | Draw | Croatia |
| 1-0 @ 5.06% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 4.35% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.7% Total : 15.81% | 1-1 @ 9.99% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.91% Total : 21% | 0-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 11.33% ( -0.06)1-2 @ 9.87% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 7.46% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 6.5% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 3.69% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 3.21% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.83% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.46% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.72% Total : 63.18% |
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