SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 52.67%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 24.36% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.17%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 2-1 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Oxford United | Draw | Arsenal |
24.36% ( 2.36) | 22.97% ( 0.87) | 52.67% ( -3.23) |
| Both teams to score 57.75% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.44% ( -1.32) | 42.56% ( 1.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.03% ( -1.33) | 64.97% ( 1.33) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.9% ( 1.32) | 31.1% ( -1.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.57% ( 1.51) | 67.43% ( -1.51) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.82% ( -1.55) | 16.18% ( 1.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.34% ( -2.9) | 45.65% ( 2.9) |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford United | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.47) 1-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.54)2-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.42)3-1 @ 2.43% ( 0.26)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.21)Other @ 2.81% Total : 24.36% | 1-1 @ 10.7% ( 0.43) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.29)3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.97% | 1-2 @ 9.75% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 8.35% ( -0.41)1-3 @ 5.92% ( -0.4)0-3 @ 5.07% ( -0.55)2-3 @ 3.46% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 2.7% ( -0.34)0-4 @ 2.31% ( -0.39)2-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.14)1-5 @ 0.98% ( -0.19)Other @ 3.41% Total : 52.67% |
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