SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 46.9%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 29.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-2 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Lyon |
46.9% ( 0.52) | 23.69% ( 0.05) | 29.41% ( -0.57) |
| Both teams to score 59.81% ( -0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.14% ( -0.57) | 41.86% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.74% ( -0.58) | 64.26% ( 0.58) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.93% ( -0.02) | 18.07% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.01% ( -0.03) | 48.99% ( 0.03) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73% ( -0.66) | 26.99% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.66% ( -0.87) | 62.34% ( 0.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | Lyon |
| 2-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.21)2-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.74% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.66% Total : 46.9% | 1-1 @ 10.92% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.68% | 1-2 @ 7.16% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.04% Total : 29.41% |
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