With Saint-Etienne conceding three goals or more in four consecutive home games — including two 3-3 draws against Angers and Brest and losses to Nice (3-1) and Paris Saint-Germain (6-1) — the second-bottom side's recent results at the Geoffroy-Guichard do not inspire confidence among supporters.
While Les Verts are expected to score on Sunday, Lyon, despite Fonseca's suspension, have continued to find the net, evidenced by the Kids scoring two goals or more in five matches since his ban and 10 overall under the Portuguese.
Thus, the away side are favoured to secure maximum points on Sunday to at least remain in fourth and potentially leapfrog Monaco or Marseille in gameweek 30.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 71%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 12.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.51%) and 1-3 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.87%), while for a Saint-Etienne win it was 2-1 (3.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
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