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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.33%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 13.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 1-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.57%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-2 (3.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Gil Vicente |
68.33% ( 0.53) | 18.28% ( -0.22) | 13.4% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 53.17% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.38% ( 0.3) | 38.62% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.08% ( 0.32) | 60.92% ( -0.31) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.69% ( 0.22) | 10.31% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.26% ( 0.49) | 33.75% ( -0.48) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.28% ( -0.26) | 40.72% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.7% ( -0.23) | 77.3% ( 0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 2-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 9.54% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 4.19% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.12% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 1.9% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.58% Total : 68.32% | 1-1 @ 8.57% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.28% | 1-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.61% Total : 13.4% |
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