Udinese average over one goal per game on the road this season, and they certainly have the nous to breach Fiorentina's usually solid defence.
However, the Viola have conceded the fewest second-half goals across Europe's top five leagues - just two - so if they get themselves in front they should stay there.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 74.51%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Udinese had a probability of 9.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.09%) and 3-0 (10.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Udinese win it was 0-1 (3.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
0.45) 
-0.14) 
