SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 48.65%. A win for Porto had a probability of 27.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
48.65% ( 0.87) | 23.5% ( -0.3) | 27.84% ( -0.57) |
| Both teams to score 59.29% ( 0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.96% ( 0.98) | 42.04% ( -0.98) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.55% ( 0.98) | 64.44% ( -0.98) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.54% ( 0.71) | 17.46% ( -0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.07% ( 1.23) | 47.93% ( -1.24) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.83% ( 0.1) | 28.16% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.14% ( 0.13) | 63.85% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Porto |
| 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 8.58% ( -0.18)2-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.16)3-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.12)4-0 @ 1.9% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.53% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.88% Total : 48.65% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.22)3-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.5% | 1-2 @ 6.89% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 6.23% ( -0.26)0-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 27.84% |
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