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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 52.04%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 26.04% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.24%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
52.04% ( -0.22) | 21.91% ( -0) | 26.04% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 63.39% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.07% ( 0.21) | 35.93% ( -0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.98% ( 0.23) | 58.02% ( -0.24) |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.96% ( 0) | 14.04% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.39% ( 0.01) | 41.6% ( -0.01) |
| Sporting Kansas City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.74% ( 0.27) | 26.25% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.63% ( 0.36) | 61.37% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 2-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 7.24% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 7.1% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 4.16% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.05% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.28% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.2% ( -0)4-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.7% Total : 52.05% | 1-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.35% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.34% Total : 21.91% | 1-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.3% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.25% Total : 26.04% |
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