Santa's recent woes, particularly against relegation-threatened sides, offer little reason for optimism, and with both sides struggling for goals – Gil failing to score in five of their last seven matches – a low-scoring stalemate appears the most probable outcome.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 41.95%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.36%) and 1-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Santa Clara in this match.
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