SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 43.95%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 32.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.58%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
43.95% ( -0.07) | 23.63% ( -0.01) | 32.42% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 61.67% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.88% ( 0.07) | 40.12% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.51% ( 0.08) | 62.48% ( -0.08) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.42% ( -0) | 18.57% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.15% | 49.84% ( -0) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.74% ( 0.08) | 24.25% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.38% ( 0.11) | 58.61% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.07% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.59% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.58% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.14% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.51% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0)Other @ 3.53% Total : 43.95% | 1-1 @ 10.74% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.41% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.63% | 1-2 @ 7.61% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.38% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.59% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.02% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.81% Total : 32.42% |
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